Government professor says COVID-19 likely won’t reduce Primary turnout

Bulletin: What impact do you think the state Supreme Court’s ruling against an all-mail ballot for the Primary will have on voter turnout?

Slayton: I don’t believe the ruling will have any measurable impact on voter turnout in Las Cruces, Doña Ana County or statewide. If we examine a recent similar example, Wisconsin – even in the midst of the pandemic and only two days after the predicted peak and largest number of deaths for the state – voter turnout was higher than expected: 34 percent of the voting-eligible population. This was lower than the 2016 Primary (47 percent), which was a dramatic outlier for Wisconsin. With the exception of the 2016 outlier, the 2020 Primary turnout was the highest Primary turnout in 40 years.

Again, citing Wisconsin, I do not think New Mexico, will have a lower-than-average turnout for the Primary because of COVID-19 for several reasons: (1) The Democrats have become very energized during President Trump’s administration and President Trump’s supporters have demonstrated that they are equally motivated. (2) Scientific predictions indicate the peak of the pandemic should have passed by June 2, and the country should be in the containment phase by that time. (3) New Mexico will have had many weeks for contingency planning and voter education, which Wisconsin did not have.

Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver has been proactive in voter outreach and education. She has an extensive campaign to encourage absentee voting, which has included personal emails to registered voters that include links to request an absentee ballot. There has been extensive national discussion about concerns over voter suppression, which has aroused many groups who want to broaden voter participation.

I would expect to see voter turnout to be within the normal range in New Mexico, which was 22.6 percent in 2016, 16.6 percent in 2012 and 19.3 percent in 2008.

I think we will see a larger-than-usual absentee balloting during this time frame. As the governor eases stay-home restrictions, I suspect we will see some in-person voting prior to June 2. Voters are now aware that emergencies can happen, and they are likely to be more inclined to vote earlier than usual. (Slaton said she plans to vote by absentee ballot.)

Bulletin: Do you think having so many people home between now and the Primary will increase voter awareness about candidates and issues in Primary races that are going on for local voters?

Slayton: No, I think it will make it more challenging for voters to become informed about candidates and issues. Face-to-face interaction, open debate forums, door-to-door campaigning, meetings in private homes, speaking to civic groups and holding local fundraisers are important ways to gain the visibility and personal connection that is important in local campaigns. All of these ways of campaigning are diminished, if not prohibited during the health crisis.

Bulletin: In contested Primaries for local offices, does the impact of COVID favor incumbents or challengers?

Slayton: It is likely to favor incumbents unless the incumbent has acted in such a fashion as to raise the ire of large segments of the population and that anger has remained consistent over a long period of time. Some incumbents are facing challenges from candidates who have a long track-record of community activism and network building. In those races, the incumbents will not necessarily have the election advantage – particularly if the incumbent has not remained actively engaged with her/his constituents.

Bulletin: How can candidates effectively campaign without public events? What are you seeing them doing to reach out to voters?

Slayton: It will be very difficult for candidates to actively campaign without public events, particularly candidates for local and state office. We can see at the national level how challenging it is for Joe Biden. A (recent) poll indicated that only 26 percent of the public has confidence he could handle the coronavirus effectively and 29 percent think he cannot. The rest indicate that they do not know enough to say. Yet, much larger percentages of those polled identified several others in the poll with higher effectiveness rates, including Trump.

What I have seen in New Mexico thus far: incumbents mailing letters to voters to inform them of their accomplishments, billboards and some campaign literature (not much).

As I examine campaign strategies for state and local offices across the country, I see a lot of innovation and novel ways for candidates to demonstrate their commitment to their communities. Many are not actively campaigning for office, but they are spending their time volunteering in their communities—finding PPE for health and safety workers, helping provide hot meals for children or food boxes for families, making deliveries of grocery or pharmaceutical items to the elderly, using their professional skills to provide needed services (counseling, tax preparation), creating Facebook pages to provide tips on how to stay healthy – physically and mentally – during the pandemic, starting go-fund-me fundraising events online to contribute resources to an organization or project to help those negatively impacted by the self-sheltering and asking donors to give to foodbanks, not to their campaigns. One example is Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) who is leading a “15 Days of Giving” initiative, with the purpose of raising money for the Arizona Salvation Army. This is a time in which candidates can demonstrate to their communities what they do, not just what they say.

In line with more traditional ways of campaigning, candidates are turning to [platforms like] Zoom to visually connect with supporters and voters. These events are being used for campaign organizing/strategizing with volunteers, connecting with potential donors and holding virtual town hall meetings. Others are establishing phone banks, sending text messages, and creating digital advertising.

Bulletin: What impact, if any, do you think Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s leadership during COVID-19 will have on the Primary?

Slayton: It is likely to have an impact in congressional elections. To some, the governor has been an astute, proactive governor, whose leadership had helped minimize the spread of the virus and death toll in New Mexico. To others, she has been an authoritarian leader who has over-reacted and caused great economic suffering to many, particularly small businesses. This sentiment is likely to be largely based on partisan lines and likely to be a motivating factor in getting citizens out to vote.

Bulletin: What’s the best way for voters to learn about candidates in the Primary and about which legislative and county commission districts they live in?

Slayton: There are several ways. The Secretary of State has an excellent website with key information, including how to do absentee balloting: www.sos.state.nm.us/voting-and-elections. The Doña Ana County Clerks’ Office has a wealth of information for local voters, including where to find polling locations: www.donaanacounty.org/elections. The League of Women Voters New Mexico is a nonpartisan group that provides voter guides and other voting information: www.lwvnm.org/information. Finally, Websites for all the political parties can provide additional information

Bulletin: Anything else you want to add?

Slayton: There is an interesting book, “Election Day: A Documentary History,” by Robert J. Dinkin, that is a compilation of accounts of activities that occurred on Election Day from the Colonial Period through 2001, including Internet voting. Chapter 38 is titled “Voting Amidst the Influenza Epidemic – San Francisco and Fresno, California, 1918.” The selections come from the San Francisco Chronicle and the Fresno Republican that wrote accounts of the General Election in their cities. Some facts from the newspaper articles: 58 percent of the registered voters voted in the election; the low turnout was due to the flu; the registrar had to make 150 changes in inspectors in the last three days before the election and substitute about half of the 4,400 election officers at the last moment, because of the flu and the absence of so many men who were fighting in WWI or were government workers (which made them ineligible). In Fresno, the voting booths were placed outside rather than indoors so as not to spread the flu. A storm in the city the night before election day destroyed several of the voting booths that were set up outside.

Visit https://deptofgov.nmsu.edu/faculty-profiles/dr-christa-slaton-professor/.