State epidemiologist: Doña Ana County doing well in COVID fight; peak is likely coming

Las Cruces and Doña Ana County (DAC) have COVID-19 infection rates substantially below state and national averages, but the virus’ peak is likely still ahead, New Mexico Department of Health state Epidemiologist Dr. Michael Landon said Friday morning, April 17, during a special meeting of the Las Cruces City Council held by videoconference.

“We have a lot of cases in the northwest and central part of the state,” Landon said. “The risk is greater in those parts of the state and lower in your part of the state and DAC.” El Paso has a higher rate of infection than Las Cruces, he said, and “that is something to keep an eye on because of the risk of importation.

Landon said the peak in New Mexico’s COVID-19 cases is likely to come in either late April/early May or around May 18, depending on which national predictive model is followed. DAC and southern New Mexico likely will see their peak numbers slightly later than that, he said.

Landon said DAC had 58 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of April 16. That is a rate of 26.7 per 100,000 county residents and compares to 82 per 100,000 in El Paso. It is, for example, about 10 percent of the rate of infection in New Mexico’s McKinley County. Statistics show DAC’s efforts to reduce social distancing in miles traveled are “paying off,” he said.

Landon said the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will soon begin conducting a community survey to determine COVID-19 infection rates in DAC. NMDOH will “get a sense of the percentage of people with symptoms,” he said.

Landon said most of the 44 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in New Mexico to date have occurred among older people with underlying health conditions that include diabetes, hypertension and other heart diseases, chronic lung disease and kidney disease. He said COVID also “does appear to be associated with poverty in New Mexico.” Landon said 37 percent of state residents who have tested positive for COVID-19 are American Indian, which is six times higher than that for other New Mexicans. Hispanics and Latinos are about 50 percent of the state population yet constitute only 24.5 percent of total COVID-19 cases in the state, Landon said.

“it’s not time to reopen” businesses that were shut down across the state by Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s stay-at-home order in March, he said. “We want social distancing to increase further. It’s premature to talk about re-opening yet. We haven’t even peaked yet,” Landon said.

“New Mexico’s really doing a very good job with testing,” he said. As of April 16, nearly 34,500 people have been tested for COVID-19. (The state’s current population is approximately 2.1 million. 2,653 people have been tested in DAC, which has a population of approximately 218,200.) “We are ranked eighth in testing among states,” he said.

“There’s a lot of focus on increasing testing capacity,” Landon said. “The more testing you do, the lower the percentage positive will be.” Currently, he said, New Mexico’s positive rate for COVID-10 is 4.3 percent (1,597 tested positive as of April 16), which Landon said is fifth lowest in terms of positivity among states. NMDOH’s April 16 report for DAC showed 2,653 people had been tested for COVID-19.

Ongoing testing will include people who don’t have COVID-19 symptoms in nursing homes, shelters and similar group facilities, Landon said.

Despite widespread speculation, Landon said it is uncertain if there will be a second wave of people testing positive for COVID-19 later in the year. “We’re counting on a vaccine within 12-18 months,” he said. “Once we get the vaccine deployed it will be a game changer. Before that happens, an aggressive approach to testing and contact tracing (identification of people who may have had contact with someone who is infected with COVID-19) is what we need to put in place.”