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Ukraine invasion could be Putin’s downfall, local Russian expert says

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“I see long and bitter warfare,” a retired Russian history professor who lives in Las Cruces said about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

With a weak economy and inadequate army, Russian President Vladimir Putin was “overconfident” in his decision to invade Ukraine on Feb. 24, and underestimated the “fierce determination” of the Ukrainian people, said Elmo E. “Joe” Roach, Ph.D.

Putin “doesn’t have what it takes if the Ukrainians resist,” Roach said. “They will resist. It will bring him down in the end.”

“The Russian army is not what it once was. The Russian economy is not what it once was,” said Roach, who was an academic professor and administrator for 35 years at Bradley University and visited Russia for the first time in 1967.  He continues to teach online courses and consults with U.S. businesses about Russia.

Putin has committed 200,000 of Russia’s 300,000 active-duty soldiers to the Ukrainian invasion, but a half million would be necessary for a successful occupation, he said. And, Russian occupiers “must be fueled, housed, fed, supplied over long and perilous supply lines,” Roach said in a PowerPoint presentation.

Putin’s invasion “violated the first rule of mass war: ‘the concentration of attacking forces,’” Roach said, citing Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831), a Prussian general and military theorist.

“Hitler’s three-front attack failed,” Roach said. “So ultimately will Putin’s.”

With a GDP that is less than that of the state of Texas, Russia’s economy has been devastated by sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries since the invasion began, Roach said. Russia’s largest bank and its second-largest oil company have lost almost 100 percent of their value, he said, and that is having a ripple effect. The Russian bond market, Roach said, “has declined to the level of junk bonds.”

Roach said 60 percent of Russian oil pipelines stretch across Ukraine and would be “easy to destroy.” That would be catastrophic to the Europeans who rely on the oil and further cripple the Russian economy, which is heavily dependent on oil exports.

The Russian people do not support the invasion of Ukraine, Roach said, and the two dozen or so men who control Russia, including 40 percent of its wealth will only continue to support Putin “if they keep prospering,” he said.

As the war continues, however, it is the Ukrainian people who “pay the price,” Roach said. “It’s going to get so awful – the inhumanity of it all, the horror. My heart goes out to the Ukrainians,” he said, and to the Russian people.

Roach described Putin as “a stone killer” and a bully who was hand-picked to lead Russia’s return to authoritarian rule after President Boris Yeltsin’s experiment with democracy in the 1990s.

“People think he’s Superman,” Roach said of Putin. “He thinks he’s God.”

Roach said Putin’s aggressive behavior could be linked in part to his alleged use of steroids and other drugs, his age (Putin turns 70 this year) and depression.

“This guy reminds me of Hitler in the bunker in 1945,” Roach said. “He has really terribly miscalculated.”

Putin has “gone to the extremes of everything else,” Roach said, so it’s impossible to say he would not resort to the use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict.

If he does, “I believe cyber can counter that,” Roach said. The U.S. capacity for cyber warfare is “massive and effective,” he said. “We’re so far ahead of them.”

“Satellites and cyber” could be used to “control everything on the battlefield,” Roach said.

Helping Ukraine

Roach said the best way to help “a devastated Ukraine that has to be rebuilt” – is to Google an area of interest, “something that attracts you” -- children, animals, education, broadcasting – and make sure the organization listed is legitimate and make a donation.

Roach said he and his wife are still deciding where they will contribute.

“I want to have a connection to refugees,” he said.  


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