Republicans may not have a Senate nominee

On June 2, New Mexico Republicans apparently elected write-in candidate Larry Marker as their U.S. Senate nominee. KUNM called the race, and by morning national outlets had him as presumptive Republican challenger to Senator Ben Ray Luján.

Within an hour of polls closing, it said he had about 4,700 votes — well above the 2,351 threshold required by law. Nobody's certified that nomination yet.

NM Republicans have been here before.

In February, Christopher Vanden Heuvel became the first Republican in modern state history disqualified from a U.S. Senate primary ballot. Oliver's office reviewed each petition signature, discarded invalid ones, and when the total fell short of 2,351 issued a disqualification letter. No rounding up. No benefit of the doubt. VANDEN HEUVEL DID NOT GET ON THE BALLOT.

New Mexico uses optical scan ballot tabulation. Machines read filled ovals. They don't read handwritten names. Where Marker's the only declared write-in candidate, every filled oval registers as a vote for him — regardless of what name they wrote, or whether they wrote anything.

A voter who filled the oval and wrote "Candidate" (ballot said write-in candidate, get it?) gets counted identically to one who wrote "Marker." The canvass is how you find out which is which.

People conflate petition signatures with write-in votes. They're not the same — the difference between walking up to a stranger and asking them to sign their name, versus asking them to write down your name.

The numbers tell the story. Marker has 12,941 reported write-ins statewide, but auditor Lawrence has 12,157 and treasurer Ellison has 12,375. Three write-in candidates in three unrelated races, all within 784 votes of each other. Doña Ana County shows zero Marker write-ins with all precincts fully reported. That's a counting artifact — machines tabulating every filled oval regardless of content — showing its seams.

Marker acknowledged it election night: "Write-in votes are tough to get. They're absolutely tough to get."

Get this — in 2018, canvass found Libertarian write-in Bob Walsh with just 175 valid write-ins against a threshold of 230. WALSH DID NOT GET ON THE BALLOT.

In 2020, canvas undercounted Libertarian write-in Stephen Curtis — Oliver's office had failed to count absentee write-in votes. Curtis sued in federal court. Judge Browning ordered a recount. Oliver conceded Curtis had cleared threshold. The consent order directed Oliver to ensure all county clerks properly account for write-in votes going forward — still in effect, right now.

The state canvassing board meets June 23rd. Under Rule 1-13-24(C), confirmed in writing, Oliver's office will determine whether verified write-ins meet 2,351 — the same number applied to Vanden Heuvel in February.

2,351+: Marker's the Republican nominee. <2,351: MARKER MAY NOT GET ON THE BALLOT.

Rule 1-8-8 lets the Republican Party of New Mexico's State Central Committee appoint a nominee before the November 3rd general election. ALL IS NOT LOST.

Don't count your chickens, New Mexico GOP.

Matt Channon is a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in New Mexico. He's an electrical and materials engineer, and New Mexico Tech graduate.